Weak Signal Detection

Sometime in the future, there’s an event, situation or risk of interest;  probably something with a negative outcome from your perspective, but not necessarily.   (We tend to be more sensitive to losses than gains, so there tends to be more interest in early awareness of those negative outcome events, than in the positive ones.)  Something that can be used as an indicator we’ll call a signal.  Signals can be something present, an entity one observes; or it can be the absence of something (or at least, a notable decrease).  Think of it as an anomaly, a departure from an expected pattern. 

A weak signal is one not strong, either due to significant difference in time between signal and event, or by its very nature, something not obviously connected to the forthcoming event. 

This will focus on forthcoming events;  while some situations are only understood retrospectively, and therefore signals after the event may be of use, but most interest is on things yet to happen. 

An ideal alert for a possible forthcoming event would be strong, clear, and with sufficient lead time to allow for suitable decisions and possible actions. But reality is seldom so configured.

One develops potential signals from pattern recognition, which implies some degree of familiarity with that cognitive domain;  or by more analytic techniques, working towards identifying potential signals, including (but not limited to):  SWOT; Black Swan; what-if; pre-mortem; “high impact, low prob”; techniques and tools used for risk identification. 

You’re driving on a clear day, dry roads, moderate traffic, operating as if on auto-pilot.  Your attention is not drawn to anything specific; just absorbing the overall situation. But then something disturbs the picture and your awareness is engaged, perhaps before anything specific has grabbed your attention. Some perceived difference in the visual field, or a sudden yet faint sound of a car horn, an intrusion in the expected pattern. 

Our experience leads us to expect certain patterns in a given context. This is an efficiency, preserving some of our attention. A weak signal may occur as an anomaly in such a pattern; a disturbance in our cognitive landscape.  Our immediate reaction should be to heighten our situational awareness. A weak signal is a hint more than a firm directive; if it is a directive, that would be to pay more close attention to a certain sector of reality. 

The anomaly in expected patterns requires us to have some  experience in the relevant domain, some familiarity.  But what if the situation is unfamiliar, novel?  What of the high impact, low probability type event? (black swan)  Having a suitable mental model can help, one that anticipates.

If you are concerned about a possible black swan, keep your eyes open for a black feather.  It might be from a crow, but it still serves to increase your awareness.

We are much more likely to notice something present than something missing.  The classic case of “the dog that did not bark in the night” exemplifies a weak signal.  It takes some discipline, practice, and focus to try to ascertain something missing.  If a certain range of seismic activity is normal in an area, a sustained reduction may foretell of an outburst at a much higher level. The quieting might be due to a lockup along a fault line, with an earthquake when the built-up strain is released. 

Ocean waves regularly come in with predictable rhythm and force  A sudden extended retreat might foretell of a tsunami. 

Under normal circumstances, birds chatter, but if the presence of predator is hinted at, even if just by a suspicious shadow, suddenly the avain conversations go quiet. 

In a project management context, when creating a project plan, especially for efforts of longer duration or interesting complexity, it is often useful to include signposts to help in ascertaining status, progress, quality etc.   Those are close to the ideal alerts;  things that hint that all is not well are frequently faint, unclear, perhaps even ambiguous: weak signals.  (note: a sign for drivers stating “Wrong Way” is useful, but not a “weak signal”.) 

In brief summary, one seeks correlation, not necessarily a direct causative relationship; a signal temporarily close to the possible event; and an active, disciplined and prowling mindset seeking a signal, able to filter out some of the environmental noise.